NFL Two-Point Decisions

Kick the extra point or go for two? For every score and time left, this plays out the rest of the game both ways and compares your chances of winning.

Your situation

Score after your touchdown
You
Them
Time left
on the clock
Timeouts left
You
Them
These matter in the last five minutes.
Point spread
Pick'em
Points you were favored by before the game (negative if you were the underdog). It already includes home field.

Strong kickLean kickToss-upLean goStrong go
Kick the extra pointchance to win
Go for twochance to win

0%25%50%75%100%
break-even rateleague two-point rate

If the try…Score becomesHow oftenChance to win

Every score and time

Each cell is the gain from going for two, in points of win probability: +2.0 means going for two raises your chance of winning by 2 percentage points over kicking. Rows are the score right after the touchdown, before the try. Click a cell to load it into the calculator.

Do coaches follow it?

How it works

Playing out the rest of the game

After the try, the other team gets the ball. The model plays the rest of the game forward one possession at a time, in 10-second steps. Each drive ends in a touchdown, a field goal, a defensive score, a safety or nothing, and takes some amount of clock. Those odds come from real NFL drives and depend on the time left, the score (a team down 5 late plays for a touchdown, a team ahead runs the clock), timeouts late in the game, and the point spread.

After every future touchdown, both teams make the better try choice too, so the model sees why down 7 differs from down 8. A tie at 0:00 goes to overtime.

Reading the numbers

  • Gain from going for two: your chance of winning if you go for two, minus your chance if you kick, in percentage points.
  • Strong means a gain of at least 1 point either way, lean 0.3 to 1, and toss-up under 0.3.
  • Break-even rate: how often you would need to convert two-pointers for the two choices to be equal. Compare it with how good you think your offense is near the goal line.
  • Success rates: for the extra point and for two-point tries.

Testing

What it leaves out

  • Your own team's two-point and kicking ability (league averages for now). The break-even rate shows how much that matters.
  • Weather and onside kicks. A failed try returned for two points the other way (7 times in 14,000 tries) is ignored.
  • Halftime: the first half runs straight into the second, so first-half chances to win are approximate. The choice itself barely moves that early.
  • Timeouts are held where you set them for the rest of the game.