NFL First-Down Odds

Conversion rates for every down and distance,

Field
Down
This play
0%50%100%
This series
0%50%100%
Actual rate 95% range Model estimate

How much the situation moves it

All snaps One situation, everything else typical

Every down and distance

Each square is the chance to move the chains across every snap. Hover or tap a square for its range by situation, and click it to look it up above. Hatched squares have fewer than plays, so lean on the estimate there.

0%25%50%75%100%
Fewer than plays Too rare to estimate, under plays

How to read it

Two kinds of odds

This play is the chance this one snap gains the yards or scores. This series is the chance the offense moves the chains before it gives the ball up, including later downs. A punt or field goal counts as a failure. On 4th down the two numbers are the same.

The 4th-down catch

4th-down numbers only include teams that chose to go for it. Coaches go for it when they like their chances, so these rates probably run higher than an average team would manage in an average spot.

The main number and the ranges

The big numbers use every snap at that down and distance, which is the most data there is. The ranges show how far three things can push it. Each row changes one of them and keeps everything else at its usual mix. The best and worst case combine all three.

A model fit to every snap measures how much each situation raises or lowers the odds. That shift is applied to the main number, so the ranges stay centered on the real data and stay steady even where a single combination has few plays. Each variable was kept only if it made predictions better on 2023 to 2025 games the model never saw.

What moves the odds

  • Field position matters most for the series. Inside the opponent’s 20, teams kick field goals instead of going for it, and the short field makes each snap a little harder.
  • Game situation moves the series odds through 4th-down choices. Trailing teams go for it more, so their series convert more often. Close means each team has a 30% to 70% chance to win.
  • Offense quality sorts teams into thirds by expected points added per play over their earlier games that season. A team’s first three games of a season use last season’s number.
  • Weather, dome or outdoor, grass or turf, home or away, defense quality, playoffs and timeouts were tested too. None of them made a real difference.

Which snaps count

  • Runs and passes, including sacks and scrambles.
  • Kneel-downs, spikes, two-point tries and plays wiped out by penalty are left out.
  • Series that ended because the half ran out are left out.
  • A defensive penalty that gives a first down on a play that still counts is a success.
  • Goal to go only shows the offense-quality range. The distance already sets field position, and game situation did not improve predictions there.