NFL First-Down Odds
Conversion rates for every down and distance,
Situation
Goal to go uses offense quality only. Field position is set by the distance, and game situation did not improve predictions inside the 10.
Every down and distance
Each square is the chance to move the chains, using the situation filters above. Click a square to look it up. Hatched squares have fewer than actual plays, so lean on the estimate there.
How to read it
Two kinds of odds
This play is the chance this one snap gains the yards or scores. This series is the chance the offense moves the chains before it gives the ball up, including later downs. A punt or field goal counts as a failure. On 4th down the two numbers are the same.
The 4th-down catch
4th-down numbers only include teams that chose to go for it. Coaches go for it when they like their chances, so these rates probably run higher than an average team would manage in an average spot.
What the filters do
- Field position matters most for the series. Inside the opponent’s 20, teams kick field goals instead of going for it, and the short field makes each snap a little harder.
- Game situation moves the series odds through 4th-down choices. Trailing teams go for it more, so their series convert more often. Close means each team has a 30% to 70% chance to win.
- Offense sorts teams into thirds by expected points added per play over their earlier games that season. A team’s first three games of a season use last season’s number.
- Weather, dome or outdoor, grass or turf, home or away, playoffs and timeouts were tested too. None of them made a real difference.
Estimate vs actual
Filters split the data thin, so the estimate comes from a model fit to every snap at that down. It combines yards to go, field position, game situation and offense quality. A filter you choose is applied to every snap at that down and distance. A filter left on All keeps the real mix. Each filter was kept only if it made predictions better on 2023 to 2025 games the model never saw.
The big number shows the actual rate when there are at least plays, and the estimate otherwise.
Which snaps count
- Runs and passes, including sacks and scrambles.
- Kneel-downs, spikes, two-point tries and plays wiped out by penalty are left out.
- Series that ended because the half ran out are left out.
- A defensive penalty that gives a first down on a play that still counts is a success.